Philippe Chalmin: Global Markets Face Uncertainty Amid Middle East Escalation
PARIS, 05 March 2026 – As tensions in the Middle East reach a critical threshold following the joint military actions of 28 February, Philippe Chalmin, France’s foremost expert on raw materials, has provided a sobering yet measured analysis of the potential economic fallout. Speaking this week, the Paris-Dauphine professor suggested that while the threat to global energy supplies is significant, the world is not yet facing a repeat of the historic oil shocks of the 20th century.
Market Volatility and the Strait of Hormuz
Following threats by Iranian officials to obstruct the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy, commodity markets have reacted with predictable volatility. Chalmin, who serves as the founding director of the influential CyclOpe reports, noted that while the situation is “less brutal than the 2022 Ukrainian crisis,” the risks to maritime trade remain acute. He observed that hundreds of vessels have already altered their routes or dropped anchor to avoid the escalating drone activity in the region.
According to Chalmin, the primary concern for the French economy remains the price at the pump. With the conflict persisting, he warned on 4 March that fuel prices in France could realistically reach the €2.00 per litre mark in the coming days. However, he cautioned against alarmism, stating that it remains “totally excessive” to categorise the current disruption as a “third oil shock” at this stage, provided the blockage of the Strait remains temporary.
Academic and Professional Profile: Philippe Chalmin
Professor Chalmin’s expertise is rooted in a distinguished academic career spanning over five decades. A graduate of the HEC business school (1974) and a Doctor of Literature, he has become the definitive voice in France for the history and economics of commodities.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Current Position | Professor of Economic History, Paris-Dauphine University |
| Key Publication | CyclOpe Yearly Report on World Commodity Markets |
| Education | HEC Paris (1974), Agrégation in History (1977) |
| Consultancy | OECD, EEC, and various international organisations |
| Specialism | Non-ferrous metals, energy, and agricultural commodities |
The “Wait and Hope” Strategy
In the most recent 38th edition of the CyclOpe report, titled “Attendre et espérer” (Wait and Hope), Chalmin and co-founder Yves Jégourel highlighted the cyclical nature of these market disruptions. The report emphasises that while geopolitical “black swan” events—such as the recent strikes in Iran—create immediate price spikes, the long-term stability of the market often depends on underlying supply chain resilience and the transition toward diversified energy sources.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Philippe Chalmin?
Philippe Chalmin is a prominent French economist and historian specialising in the markets for raw materials and commodities. He is a professor at Paris-Dauphine University and the founder of the CyclOpe research group.
Will fuel prices in France exceed €2.00 per litre?
According to Chalmin’s analysis on 4 March 2026, if the conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt supply lines, it is “probable” that petrol and diesel prices will reach or exceed the €2.00 threshold in the immediate future.
What is the CyclOpe report?
The CyclOpe report is an annual comprehensive analysis of global commodity markets, covering everything from oil and gas to metals and agricultural products. It is considered the industry standard for market forecasting in the French-speaking world.
Is there a risk of a total oil shock?
While the situation is serious, Chalmin currently views the economic impact as manageable compared to previous crises, provided that the Strait of Hormuz is not subjected to a total and prolonged closure.